Rookies of the Year are in
I don’t really have a problem with them. Chris Coghlan won the NL, and Andrew Bailey the AL, and, sure, whatever. They’re fine players.
Coghlan would have been my third choice in the NL, following Randy Wells and Phillies pitcher slash rap sensation Ja Happ, who had damn near identical (and very very good) stats for the year. Identical to each other, I mean, not to Coghlan; Wells and Happ are starting pitchers, and Coghlan’s like a left fielder.
Coghlan: .321 / .390 / .460 / .850, 122 OPS+, 9 HR, 53 BB, -8 FRAA. Not a bad rookie year to be sure. Not much power, but he got on base like a sonuvabitch. Unfortunately, he played exactly replacement-level defense in left field (0 FRAR), which, in my eyes, kind of hurts his value.
Meanwhile, here are a few rook pitchers:
Wells: 3.05 ERA, 165.1 IP, 1.276 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 2.26 K/BB, 147 ERA+
Happ: 2.93 ERA, 166 IP, 1.235 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.13 K/BB, 145 ERA+
Zowie. I give the edge to Wells mainly because of the lower HR/9, but god damn are those two dudes similar. And, to my mind, better Rookies of the Year than Coghlan. But, again, whatever. Coghlan’s a fine choice.
(Baseball Prospectus, incidentally, does not agree with me, giving Happ the edge over Wells by half a win: 5.9 to 5.3 WARP3. But it says both are much more valuable than Coghlan, who comes in at 3.1.)
Bailey was actually stunningly good:
1.84 ERA, 83.1 IP, 0.876 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.79 K/BB, 238 ERA+
The only fly in his ointment is that 83.1 IP, which != much. I know, I know, he’s a closer. But still, he only pitched 83.1 innings. I guess when you’re impossibly brilliant and magnificent for those 83.1 innings that makes up for it. I can deal with that. Let’s put these numbers in context.
Mystery Player: 1.76 ERA, 66.1 IP, 0.905 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 6 K/BB, 243 ERA+
Very very similar lines, right? Would it put Bailey’s Rookie of the Year in perspective if I point out that Mystery Player is the best pitcher of all time? And that Bailey pitched seventeen innings more?
(Bailey was worth a stunning seven wins to his team, according to WARP3. And he only pitched 83.1 innings. Ye gods. Mystery Player was worth eight, and he’s the best pitcher of all time.)
