Steve!
Hey, gang, Steve Henson’s written an article! Let’s see if it’s bad!
High rollers tossing sevens means cash, cash and more cash at felted casino tables. Sevens were lucky as well at this week’s winter meetings, bringing riches to two high-rolling free agents with another on the horizon.
Steve wrote his first paragraph before he remembered that this year’s winter meetings were at Disney World, not Las Vegas. Signs point to "bad."
Right fielder Jayson Werth kicked off the proceedings by signing a seven-year, $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals.
That deal was completed before the winter meetings started, man. Actually it was even goddamn announced before the winter meetings started. So when you say "kicked off the proceedings," are you talking about some other proceedings? Or were you just not really paying attention?
Left fielder Carl Crawford rocked the American League to its core Wednesday night by agreeing to a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
Everybody kind of figured Crawford was headed to the Red Sox. Maybe you could mention that Adrian somebody they traded for to replace their other Adrian, yeah? That was kind of a surprise.
And pitcher Cliff Lee nudged the New York Yankees from a six to a seven-year offer Thursday. From his Arkansas ranch, Lee spent the rest of the day circling back to the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and perhaps the Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals, as well, to heat up the bidding war before he decides.
Cliff Lee is not going to sign with the Nationals. That’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard. He’s going to sign with the Yankees, man. He’s just waiting because the Yankees are impatient and start stacking more years on their offer, like, by the day. Which is exactly what happened.
The Rangers dispatched a front-office contingent to Lee’s bucolic spread Thursday morning, the third time they have done so since the World Series.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
Also? The Rangers are out of money. They can’t go any higher here, nor should they. Cliff Lee will sign with the Yankees.
Needless to say, landing a seven-year deal makes a player a winter meetings winner. Period. But other winners surfaced as well. And, of course, losers abounded – teams seemingly frozen in place and free agents all but ignored.
I’ll agree with you here, Steve: signing a seven-year deal is a pretty significant win for a player. You seem to have forgotten, though, that teams not acting aren’t necessarily losers, because sometimes teams that act do stupid things. Like, for example, if that team is the Cubs, or the Mets.
Winter meetings winners
• Cliff Lee: The contracts of Werth and Crawford gifted Lee with what he desired all along, a seventh year added to his upcoming contract.
He was getting that anyhow. The Yankees desperately need pitching, and he’s pretty much the only boat in the harbour.
How good will he be in 2017, going on age 39? Certainly not good enough to be paid $20 million.
How many times has Cliff Lee been good enough to be paid $20 million at all? My sources say either two or three times. And the Yankees are going to bank on him being a $20 million player… seven times. This should be pretty funny.
But forget those dumb nerdy numbers. What is this WAR shit, anyhow? Sounds more like a football stat, amirite?? How about we look at career paths of similar players? Well, by Bill James’ similar players metric, the most similar player to Cliff Lee is the estimable Mark Mulder. Cliff Lee is 31 right now, so I’m going to assume (caution: math!) that he’ll be 32 next year. When Mark Mulder was 32, he was worth… oh, wait, he was out of baseball. So forget him. Next on the list is the household name Teddy Higuera, who, at age 32, threw 36.1 innings, broke down, and was out of baseball. Hmm. Third is LaMarr Hoyt, who, when he was 32, was… out of baseball.
Verlander, Haren, and Beckett are the next three names on the list. None of them is 32 yet, but they’re all having injury issues and seem to be either at their peaks or just starting to come down. Fred Hutchinson is seventh, and, when he was 32, he threw 37.1 innings and was out of baseball. Jake Peavy is eighth, who isn’t 32 yet, and looks like he’s pretty much finished. Ninth is El Duque, who was about 56 by the time he got to MLB, and was a notoriously up-and-down player. Tenth is Rick Reed, who muddled along in MLB until he was 38, but peaked at 32 and wasn’t really ever any good afterward.
Those are the ten players most like the 32-year-old pitcher the Yankees are about to give 7/$140M to. This is going to be hilarious.
Oh, one more real quick: you know who the most similar pitcher at age 31 was? That’s right: Denny Neagle. Let that one sink in. And then, hey, remind me how old Denny Neagle was when the Rockies signed him to a huge contract and he bombed out of baseball? Oh, that’s right: 31.
But this is about supply and demand, it’s about cartoon baseball dollars, and in 2017 Lee indeed could be making $20 million from somebody.
Oh, are you still talking? Good, looks like I didn’t miss anything. You’re still just using words you don’t understand to say things that don’t mean anything.
• Red Sox: Nothing triggers a spending spree like finishing third place and missing the playoffs.
As opposed to finishing in third place and not missing the playoffs. Which is not a thing.
Boston lost right-handed sluggers Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre to free agency, but replaced them with better players in Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Both hit left-handed, which might be problematic in an AL East that features several top left-handed pitchers, but that’s a minor quibble. The Red Sox are now mostly a collection of steady, productive and highly professional veterans. They should bond quickly, and win soon.
The Yankees have two left-handed pitchers, only one of whom is not Boone Logan. The Rays have two left-handed pitchers, only one of whom is not Randy Choate. The Blue Jays and Orioles have a few lefties each, but they’re all bad lefties, who I’ll assume are easier to hit than good righties. Except for that, though, you’re pretty much spot on — the Red Sox have improved a lot, and should be a beast in 2011. Assuming any of their pitchers are healthy.
• Chicago White Sox: By securing slugger Adam Dunn in addition to re-signing free agents Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the White Sox added more pop than any other team.
It doesn’t count as adding pop if you’re just re-signing players you already have, doofus. The only thing they added was Adam Dunn, which gives them three designated hitters for one DH spot. If the solution they prefer is the one I’ve heard rumoured — Pierzynski at C, Dunn at 1B, Konerko at DH — the White Sox will have the worst infield defense in the history of baseball. But at least they’ll have A.J.’s pop (2010: .118 ISO, .388 SLG, 9 HR)!
Dunn is good for 40 home runs a year, and Chicago is ready to challenge the Minnesota Twins and hold off the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.
Dunn is also good for 170 strikeouts a year. I know, I know; batter strikeouts aren’t very important overall, but you just know that’s going to drive his insane manager absolutely apeshit. Ozzie Guillen hates it when dudes strike out a lot and hit home runs. My prediction: he hits Dunn seventh because he strikes out too much to be useful.
• Scott Boras clients: Werth, represented by Boras for the first time, is richer beyond his wildest dreams.
HELP WANTED: Yahoo! Sports is looking for an experienced editor with a demonstrated ability to prevent idiot sportswriters from writing that sentence.
Carlos Pena, a first baseman who batted all of .194 in 2010, signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Chicago Cubs to re-establish his value for a multi-year deal after the 2011 season.
I think we all know what I think about that deal. Though it was undeniably a win for Peña, whose last name does have a tilde, Steve.
Beltre did the same a year ago, had a strong season with the Red Sox, and with Crawford off the market, is now the best hitter available.
Wait, what happened to Jim Thome? His career OPS+ is forty points higher than Beltre’s. It’s true! And if you’re going to pooh-pooh him because of his age, well, in 2010 he did this: .283 / .412 / .627 / 1.039, for an OPS+ of 178. Hell, I’d take Jim Edmonds, Manny Ramirez, or Vlad Guerrero over Beltre, if we’re talking pure hitting.
The Angels, who have a need at third base, could be desperate to sign him after letting Crawford slip away.
The Angels are desperate to sign anybody. Did you see how bad they were in 2010?
The Rangers could trade Michael Young and sign Beltre if they miss out on Lee.
No they could not. To whom would they trade Michael Young? Do you have any idea how much money he makes? Here’s a hint: he makes $16 million per year for the next three years. Who the fuck is going to take that contract? And don’t say the Mets; they already have a 3B.
Also: does it work that way? "Hey guys, we could really use an ace… oh, fuck, Cliff Lee signed with the Yankees? Never mind. Get an overrated 3B instead."
Closer Rafael Soriano is another Boras client who might have benefited by waiting out the winter meetings.
So anybody who waits out the winter meetings is an automatic loser… except for Rafael Soriano. That makes sense.
• Carl Crawford: Werth’s deal meant Crawford could do no worse than seven years, and at a higher annual value. Although the Angels seemed the favorite, their offer was a reported $108 million.
Seriously, Steve, nobody but you thought the Angels were the favourite. Everybody who pays attention knew he was going to the Red Sox.
Crawford has played many games in Fenway Park. He’s probably envisioned himself in a Red Sox uniform, as one of the haves.
So what qualifies a player as a "have" in your book, Steve? Crawford made $10M in 2010. He was an absolute superstar, with his own insane overblown nickname ("The Perfect Storm"). The Rays have, in the last three years, won two AL East titles and one AL pennant, whereas the Red Sox have two wild card berths and no titles at all. It’s not clear to me that players base their self-worth on how much their team’s fat, overpaid, below-average pitchers make.
He opted for the familiarity of the AL East over the West Coast.
Perhaps. Or perhaps he opted for the additional forty million fucking dollars the Red Sox offered him.
He knows exactly what he’s in for in Boston. In hindsight, this shouldn’t have been a surprise. Still, it was a bold move by Boston.
Here, let me requote this whole section. I want you to see something:
Crawford has played many games in Fenway Park. He’s probably envisioned himself in a Red Sox uniform, as one of the haves. He opted for the familiarity of the AL East over the West Coast. He knows exactly what he’s in for in Boston. In hindsight, this shouldn’t have been a surprise. Still, it was a bold move by Boston.
And that’s what I did on my summer vacation, by Steve, age 8.
• Dodgers organization: Yes, the McCourt divorce drama became more murky when a judge threw out a marital property agreement, but the Dodgers had moved quickly before the meetings to restock their starting rotation and infield.
With bad players. Who are bad. You may have neglected to mention that, Steve. I mean, sure, they got a lot of dudes, but… wouldn’t it be nice if any of them were any good? At baseball, you know?
And congratulations on describing a judge invalidating a legal contract on the grounds that it didn’t reflect a "meeting of the minds" — which is not, incidentally, a legal thing — as "murky." I guess you can’t say "bullshit" in print.
They were named Topps Organization of the Year at the meetings, an award that dates back to 1966 and goes to the franchise with the greatest number of players that received Topps awards during the season.
I’ve never done any coverage of the Topps awards because, quite frankly, I think Steve just made them up. There’s no such award.
Oh. I see. This prestigious award is apparently given to the team whose farm system has had the most MiLB players of the month, or some bullshit like that. Who cares? Nobody cares. And what does that have to do with this article, anyhow? If I declare that the New York Mets are the perfectlydarien.com comedy team of the year — an award I’ve been handing out since the Mets were incorporated in 1962, and which has been awarded to the Mets every single year — does that go in your article allegedly about the winter meetings, too?
• Jim Hendry: The Cubs general manager was healthy and frisky, holding court in the lobby of the Dolphin hotel at 3 a.m. Thursday morning, still chatting away to fellow executives. The last time the meetings were held at this Disney resort, Hendry was rushed to a hospital for an angioplasty, yet still signed pitcher Ted Lilly to a four-year, $40 million contract from his hospital bed. This year he sewed up Pena, but from an upright position.
The Lilly contract worked out fine in the end, but it sure looked like madness at the time. A multi-year contract worth an average of $10M/year given to a player with a history of violent outbursts and generally being an absolute head-case? Does that sound familiar to anybody else?
Also, hey, if you’re alleging that Jim Hendry dying of gravy fries overload would save us from the awful Peña contract… I’ll take it.
• Baltimore Orioles: They obtained power-hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks and steady shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Twins while giving up nobody who figured prominently in their 2010 plans.
What "plans" would those be? Their plans to finish fifth in the division? Or do you mean their owner’s plans to build a giant space laser that runs on diamonds, or whatever that movie was about? Because, yeah, they didn’t trade any of their East German laser scientists.
And to finish up, they re-signed Japanese swingman Koji Uehara to a one-year contract with a vesting option for 2012, making their calculated risk of not offering him arbitration pay off.
Uehara wasn’t arbitration-eligible. What on earth are you talking about? He’s pre-arb until next year. Even if he were arb-eligible, there’s no "risk" to the team until he’s eligible for free agency, you nutbar. Here’s how pre-arb works:
1) The team offers a contract that must be at least league minimum (somewhere a bit north of $400k) and no less than 80% of what the player made the year before ($5M, in Uehara’s case).
2) The player accepts. Or the player refuses, in which case:
3) The team signs him to whatever contract they please, and the player gets no further input.
Now, once he’s eligible for arbitration — next year — the process will be different. Steps 1 and 2 will be the same, but step 3 will be "ask Shyam Das to decide." What you’re talking about only applies to players eligible for free agency, because then they can sign with some other team. But Uehara’s not a free agent until 2015.
So here I am, sitting on the sofa in my spare time, teaching a national baseball writer the fundamentals of the business of baseball. Life is stupid.
The Orioles want Uehara to close and he prefers to start, but they can hash that out in spring training.
Yeah, they sure can. Here is that "hashing out:"
Buck Showalter: Hey Kobe, you’re in the pen.
Koji Uehara: ã€å††å½¢ç›®ã¯å‡ºã¦ã„ã。 ç§ã¯å§‹ã¾ã£ã¦ã„る。
Buck Showalter: What? Hey boy, what was that? I don’t speak Spanish.
Koji Uehara: 実質ã®ãŸã‚ã§ã‚ã‚‹ã‹ã€‚ ケビンMillwoodãŠã‚ˆã³Brad Bergesenを始ã‚ã€ãƒšãƒ³ã«ç½®ã“ã†ã¨ã—ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã‹ã€‚ ç§ã¯Brad Bergesenよりよã„åƒå€ã€‚
Buck Showalter: Attaboy! Get in that bullpen and score us a touchdown!
Koji Uehara: ã‚‚ã®ã¯ä½•ã§ã‚‚ã€ã†ã¾ã。 ç§ã¯5,000,000ドルãŠã‚ˆã³I’俸給をå—ã‘å–ã‚‹; å†åº¦llã®æŠ•çƒ40ã®ã‚¤ãƒ‹ãƒ³ã‚°ã€‚ ç§ã¯6ã¤ã®æ€§äº¤ã®å‹åˆ©ã®ç§ãŒå§‹ã¾ã‚‹ã“ã¨ã‚’許å¯ã—ãŸã‚‰ä¾¡å€¤ãŒã‚る。
Buck Showalter: You shot what? Ha ha! Play ball! Ha ha!
So even though Konerko and Beltre spurned their advances, the Orioles had a good week. Free agent Adam LaRoche remains a possibility at first base.
Adam LaRoche is expensive and lousy. I’ve also heard they’re interested in Derrek Lee; they should sign him instead. He’s super sexy.
Oh, and the team’s public relations execs laudably took the high road in response to outfielder Luke Scott unloading his far-right political opinions on David Brown of Yahoo! Sports’ Big League Stew blog, including his belief that President Barack Obama was not born in the U.S.
Steve, incidentally, will not take said high road. He will point out a total of three times in this article (and once in a caption that, to be fair, was probably written by somebody else) how offended he is by Scott’s failure to genuflect at the feet of the God-Emperor.
Incidentally, here are Luke Scott’s bizarre far-right beliefs that so offended Yahoo Sports that they mocked him for them four times in this article you’re reading, two times during the interview, and three times in editorial "asides" added to the interview:
"First of all, the reason the Second Amendment was put into place was to keep the government from controlling the people. History will tell you everything. Just look at anywhere else in the world. Look at Russia, look at Eastern Europe, look at South America. Gun control means control. It means control for the government and the government starts controlling the people."
"Obama does not represent America. Nor does he represent anything what our forefathers stood for. This country is basically built on an attitude. It’s a way of life. It’s not because you’re born here. It’s not that you’re supposed to take from those who have and give to those who haven’t. That kills a country. It killed Russia."
"I didn’t have the same opportunity growing up, as some people. I also had more opportunity than others. Whatever is given to that person, whatever you do with it is what makes the difference. And that’s what has happened in this country: People want the same result, but they don’t want to pay the same price. They want equality, but not by earning it — they want it given to them."
"We’ve had poor leadership in this country, poor leadership in Congress and positions of authority. People are willing to compromise their beliefs, compromise for votes. I’ll say something to somebody to get their vote, but if I have to compromise what I believe in, there’s no honor in that. There’s no integrity. That’s not a leader."
"There needs to be accountability for the truth. I don’t care if you’re the president of the United States, you need to be held accountable. If you’re involved in treacherous acts, or you’re saying things that are against, or are selling out our country, you should be brought to trial. I mean, no one’s above the law."
What a fucking wacko.
• Scott: He’s a winner because he is, in his words, a "fellow American," with the freedom to express his views, regardless of how off-center they might be.
Of course, it is worth noting that Yahoo Sports is giving huge, huge publicity to Scott’s views, and not (as far as I’m aware) censoring or concealing them. They’re being assholes, but they’re letting the man speak his piece. So there’s that.
Winter meetings losers
• New York Yankees: They had genuine interest in Crawford, but because Lee had them in a holding pattern, they were unwilling to make an offer and lost him to the rival Red Sox. Furthermore, in their few hours spent in the friendly confines of their Tampa complex, the Yankees were embarrassed by their captain and shortstop Derek Jeter, who used a news conference announcing his three-year contract as a forum to express anger and dismay at the impolite utterances of team executives. Jeter made it clear he’d informed the team he would not test the free-agent market, then anonymous Yankees honchos publicly invited him to do so anyway.
So the Yankees are losers because they hurt Jeter’s feelings, even though he signed anyway and not for much more than they wanted. And they’re losers because they missed out on their second priority — another outfielder they don’t really need — even though they’ll almost definitely land their top priority. BAD SHOW, YANKEES.
Of course, if the Yankees sign Lee, they immediately move to the winners’ column.
They will. And then, well, we’ll see how winner-y that ends up.
• Los Angeles Angels: Prognosticators from reporters to scouts to executives believed Crawford would sign with the Angels. After all, he fits their style of play, he’s a pal of Torii Hunter, the Angels were desperate for Crawford’s combination of speed and extra-base production. But, no. Now they are exactly where they hate to be: at the mercy of Boras, who can squeeze every last dime for Beltre and Soriano.
Yeah, the Angels were pretty big losers.
Of course, if the Angels somehow land Lee, they too would move up.
They won’t. And, no, they wouldn’t, because pitching was not LA’s problem. Hitting was. Hitting hitting hitting. Specifically at third base. The Angels should be in hard on Beltre, and I don’t give two shits what they think of Boras. Did you see the shit they were putting out there last year? OPS+ of 5? What?
• Tampa Bay Rays: The best they could get for top-tier shortstop Jason Bartlett was two iffy relievers.
Mostly because Jason Bartlett is a top-tier shortstop if and only if there’s only one tier. Jason Bartlett had an awesome 2009, it’s true. But you know what? His 2010 OPS+ was 88. His 2010 TZ was -3. His 2010 DRS was 2. His 2010 UZR was -10.4. He was worth somewhere around one win. The Rays are lucky they got two iffy relievers for a player that bad.
Their first baseman, Carlos Pena, was signed by the Cubs.
Yeah, we know. The Cubs are idiots. There are like ten thousand first basemen on the market this year, and the Cubs signed a bad one to a big contract. The Rays can save money and improve at this position.
• Seattle Mariners: A year ago, Jack Zduriencik was the toast of the meetings for breathing hope into a struggling franchise by working a three-team, 12-player deal that landed the Mariners outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez. He also signed infielder Chone Figgins, and a week after the winter meetings traded for Lee. And by spring training, he’d brought back Ken Griffey Jr. and took a chance on Milton Bradley. The entire plan backfired, and this winter the Mariners were basically nonexistent. Zduriencik stayed in his hotel suite and no moves were made.
So let me get this straight. The Mariners were super active last year, everything blew up, and they got fucked for it. So this year they sit quiet and try to clean up last year’s mess, and that’s bad, too? What do you want them to do, Steve? Trade Griffey and Chavez for Nolan Ryan, Carlton Fisk, and Steve Buscemi?
• San Francisco Giants: The heady buzz of a World Series championship seems to have the Giants believing they can bring back that ol’ gang of theirs and win again. Maybe they’ve forgotten how fortunate they were to win it all without much offense. Manager Bruce Bochy thoroughly enjoyed the winter meetings, although GM Brian Sabean kept his typical low profile.
You may have noticed, Steve, that every time Brian Sabean makes a big deal it turns out awful. If we’re lucky, maybe he’s noticed it too.
Re-signing Aubrey Huff was fine, but bringing back Pat Burrell and signing the all-but washed up Miguel Tejada to replace Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were questionable moves.
As usual, Steve has everything totally backwards. Aubrey Huff parlayed his career year into 2/$22M, which the Giants can’t really afford, and which he’ll probably underperform by a pretty big margin. They should have let him go, taken the draft picks, and signed one of the ten thousand 1B on the market this season instead. Burrell they signed for one million dollars and one year. What the fuck, Steve? What’s the issue there? Dude’s pretty definitely going to cruise past the 0.2 WAR he needs to post to be worth that huge investment. And Tejada… yeah, he’s pretty cooked, but not really any more cooked than Uribe or Renteria, and there weren’t a lot of options at SS. What do you want them to do? Outbid the Yankees for Jeter?
The Giants still need a bat, and although Bochy is hopeful Pablo Sandoval fills the bill by returning to 2009 form, the best he could report was that Kung Fu Panda had lost all of two pounds.
Yeah, well, sometimes the cure isn’t out there. Who should they have signed? Most of this year’s bats were 1B/DH types. They signed one. How many more should they carry? They’re an NL team, Steve.
• Cincinnati Reds: Made the playoffs then did nothing to improve. Signing Miguel Cairo doesn’t count.
But getting rid of Aaron Harang does.
• San Diego Padres: Trading Gonzalez, their only big bat, puts them here. None of the prospects they received from the Red Sox in return are big league ready. The acquisitions of center fielder Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett for spare-part relievers might have been shrewd, but both newcomers are strong defenders with questionable bats. The Padres already have plenty of players with that profile. The absence of Gonzalez’s production likely drops San Diego under .500 in 2011.
Jason Bartlett hasn’t been a good defender in like four years. And the Padres have a $30M payroll, Steve. What were you looking for? Also: the 2010 Padres were 90-72. According to you, Gonzalez’s offense was worth nineteen wins? Wow. According to smart people, it was worth 5.7, and we’re assuming they’ll get a replacement-level player instead. Given the glut of 1B, they can probably plug two wins into that slot pretty easily, so they’re really only downgrading by about 3.5.
Of course, they were way over their heads in 2010, so don’t take this as a prediction for 87-75 in 2011.
• Luke Scott: What were you thinking?
Bow down, plebeian, and the God-Emperor may yet show mercy.
